In episode 2 of the Laird Report, I ponder whether Russia will invade the Ukraine, with tensions rising, and Ukraine spelling out a commitment to join NATO, invasion seems highly likely. Could this act be the trigger to WW3 or is Putin just bluffing? Already 130,000 Russians flank Ukraine's border, but that would be a drop in a bucket to the true might of Russian military power. The West despite making noises isn't prepared to standby the Ukrainians all the way. Are we weeks or months away from an attack? If you look at your history, if the Russians are going, the earlier the better. I am better on a partial invasion, two prong pincer movement to cut the country in half, create a buffer zone. The US President Joe Biden just gave up the Ukraine, his tough talk seems to centre around sanctions, and Putin doesn't care about sanctions, his focus is Russian security.
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Don't forget the potential for things to unravel and get nasty in the south western part of Ukraine known as Transcarpathia. The sizable Hungarian monitory have many grievances against the Kyiv government which explains Budapest's near belligerence to helping Ukraine in this crisis as it sees this minority in the same way Putin sees the Russian one in the East.
ReplyDeleteI don't know about wars becoming quick these days. Just look at Saudi Arabia's intervention into Yemen. It's gone-on for years and no-one thinks it is even close to being over.
ReplyDeleteFor me, the solution to this is for Ukraine to come out, as you say, and unequivocally declare their neutrality. NATO doesn't really want them anyway.
Russia is not a wealthy country and the success of their gas pipeline which by-passes Ukraine and heads straight for Germany is key to their future prosperity.
ReplyDeleteAt the time, the Germans were told that this pipeline was all part of a political game which would embolden Russia and weaken Ukraine, but they ignored that advice and encouraged the pipeline.
It seems to me that another means of ensuring peace in the region is refusing to accept any gas from this pipeline.
I keep thinking there will be a solution to this which prevents conflict. Look at Syria for example, once one of the most advanced societies in the Middle East. The best dentist I ever went to was a Syrian. That was then. Now, after 10-years of war, it is probably finished and will never-ever recover. The dentist's family home is still there but he will not be returning.
ReplyDeleteUkraine is an enormous country in terms of square miles and it has all the potential to bog-down the Russian military for years to come.
Talking about the shifting world order and what were once thriving and modern democracies which have now been reduced to ruin, another good example is Iran. Once the home to great Universities and medical research, the women were free to wear western clothes and go about town freely, now it has all changed. Just about the only thing they are competitive at nowadays is the manufacture of missiles.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, these plywood machine guns the Ukrainian women are pointing at you were made in Germany. The Germans said: 'give us all your natural gas supplies and we will give you all the weapons you need to defend yourselves'. Only later did the Ukrainians find-out they would be made of plywood. On the plus side, the Germans haven't taken any of Ukraine's gas yet. They're waiting a few months until the war has settled down and we have a winner and a loser. The Germans then will cut-off Ukraine's gas while no-one is looking.
ReplyDeleteI understand the latest proposal by Putin is to annex two Russian supporting areas of Ukraine. For me anyway, that appears to be a good solution because once war starts, anything could happen.
ReplyDeleteIt would mean of course that Russian troops would be stationed inside Ukraine, but Ukraine is a very big country and the area occupied is an area that Ukraine has no interest in anyway.
Just accept it - everyone can get-on with life.