In
the not too distant future, the voters of Rutherglen and Hamilton West maybe
going to the polls, if the petition to remove the sitting MP Margret Ferrier
passes the hurdle of 10% of the electorate. The by-election on paper seems to
be a ‘shoo in’ for the Labour Party who traditional pull a sizeable vote in the
constituency. The SNP leadership jumped on the bandwagon against Ferrier when
it came out she had travelled to London despite knowing she had tested positive
for covid. Of course, she wasn’t the only who broke the rules, but sometimes in
politics a political goat is staked out for the public. Ferrier is the poster
child of anyone who broke the covid rules at Westminster. What happens to these
other people, some in government? Well simply nothing, they are going on with
their lives so problems there. In many ways, the use of the political goat isn’t
new, in the Westminster expenses scandal; a few goats were needed to protect
the bulk of the MPs being exposed to the bright light. You could argue the
merits whether Margaret Ferrier is being treated unfair; after all, her own
party disowned her for political reasons during the Nicola Sturgeon era, the
rest of the parties are just ‘playing the game’. In other words, its politics,
justice, fairness or ethical reasons play no part in that, in the race to
attain power, destroying a person is acceptable, under the guise of being noble.
One thing I have learned in politics, there are very few white knights, and you
should learn this too, and keep remembering it.
Speaking of non white Knights, the Muslim leader of the SNP or ‘albatross’ Humza Yousaf isn’t having a good pre election cycle; Rutherglen is a test of his ‘new’ leadership. Or to be more accurate, this is Sturgeon’s leadership by proxy in action. Of course, it seems there is no sign of Nicola Sturgeon on the stump yet, which would cause a flurry of questions, mostly relating to alleged missing SNP funds. No, Sturgeon is being hidden from sight, as she constantly points out to anyone appearing to listen, she is innocent, but she wouldn’t give the same endorsement to her husband Peter Murrell. Don’t expect to see Murrell out campaigning either, not in a campaign office or on a doorstep, he has like Sturgeon decided to stay hidden. Oh, before I forget, he is innocent until proven guilty, just like everyone who has been arrested. In my time as an SNP activist, I noticed that SNP HQ effectively decamped from Edinburgh to run a big by-election. Everyone who was seen to be a serious activist turned up at this type of event, minor election like council didn’t rate a presence of many well known kiddie on faces, but Westminster and Holyrood by-elections rated as special. In fact, you could say, the SNP ran these type of elections well. They had all the bases covered, money, staffers and resources all lined up.
This election if it comes off will be different, as well as the current situation of having a party seen as corrupt, incompetent and ultimately useless, Humza Yousaf has picked a dud to take the hit and lose gracefully. Katy Loudon, a councillor from South Lanarkshire is Madam Escosse Donkey in this election. Although Loudon takes the public hit at the podium when the result is released, the real loser is Humza Yousaf, this is his first big electoral test since taking over as SNP leader. The question is how badly will he lose? Even party insiders think the defeat will be major; words like thumping are being bandied around inside his camp. For a party used to success having a weak leader, poor candidates and policies that the public doesn’t want is only part of the problem. The real issue for Humza Yousaf is how to get rid of Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell, if there was ever a man praying for the cops to kick the door in and cart people off, it’s Humza Yousaf.
At present, we sit and wait for a countdown, for the petition to close; to see if the required number of signatures has been reached that triggers the by-election. If it happens, all the political parties will invade Rutherglen and Hamilton West for the next six weeks of the active election or ‘short campaign’. Humza Yousaf is committed to fight this election, he has no choice. Sturgeon backed him into a corner, if there was ever a guy praying for the petition to fail, I suspect it would be Humza Yousaf. Everyone else is baying for blood; they want Rutherglen to be the catalyst of collapse. If the SNP support collapses, it calls into question should there be a change of leadership? The bad taste of how Humza Yousaf was elected by the Sturgeon cabal is still strong in the mouths of the SNP members; they have a legit reason for not turning up at Rutherglen. One SNP councillor has privately admitted they could not “in good conscience” ask people to vote for the SNP at the present time. In politics at by-election, you sell not just the candidate but also the party, where is the positive spin, that you could put on the Humza Yousaf and the SNP? Yousaf is seen as fake, false and insincere, I campaigned with him; I know firsthand, he is lazy and not very bright.
If you’re an SNP Activist is the smart bet to stay away? Many apparently report “embarrassment” at being asked to promote a party on the doorstep which is mired in sexual and financial sleaze, a police probe, and lack of progress on independence. The public have wised up to the running gag that a vote for the SNP is a vote for independence; this is the trick that Nicola Sturgeon used post 2014 time and time again, I dubbed it ‘the mandate con’. Every election was a mandate for the Sturgeon cult to continue to slice off public funds to keep their luxury lifestyle going. In return, the public got crumbs, crumbs, crumbs and more crumbs. So sure was Sturgeon of her power, she openly pissed on Scots and didn’t even pretend to call it rain. Everything post Salmond in the SNP was all about protecting and promoting Nicola Sturgeon, it was never about Scotland, it was about her. Labour sources say the SNP vote is “very soft” with an unusually high proportion of former SNP voters now describing themselves as don’t knows. The Great Awakening is happening, of course when you stab your former candidate in the back, you can’t expect public support. The previous election with Margaret Ferrier saw the SNP having a majority of 5,230 in the seat, I think we can say that majority is gone or seriously dented.
If 10% of the registered electors in Ferrier’s seat, or 8,113 out of 81,124 people sign the petition in person, it is game on, it triggers a by-election which in theory Margaret Ferrier could also stand. The SNP plans to move the writ for the by-election as soon as Westminster returns from summer recess in September. If the timetable goes to plan, it means a by-election in early October. For those unfamiliar with by-elections, they can prove very educational for activists, generally fast paced and with a variety of activists who have extensive experience. I always recommend campaigning in these special events as a way of gaining valuable insight into how the party works. The Labour Party has a strong base of support in Rutherglen to work from, they need to tap into the previous soft SNP voters and make a serious pitch for their vote. In a whiff of how defeat is running through the Yousaf camp, an SNP source believes the party would be lucky to get 25% in a by-election. Their words give you a sense of the mood,
“It’s a goner. It’ll be a total thumping. Folk are embarrassed to go out and push for the party. Katy Loudon is a good person but she’s not a unifying candidate.”
Katy Loudon is the dug to be kicked about the streets for the next six weeks. She is the person who doesn’t want to speak to the press except at stage managed photo ops. Scottish Labour isn’t just looking for a win, they want to see low double digit SNP voters. SNP MSP John Mason, who won the Glasgow East Westminster by-election in 2008 by 365 votes, and whose Shettleston seat is next to Rutherglen & Hamilton West, said it was too early to predict the result. Is it really John? I did 16 days on John Mason’s 2008, it was a hard fought campaign, the SNP had a better situation then, their current predicament is beyond terrible.
Mason added:
“I think it’s going to be a challenge for the SNP but I’ll certainly be going over and campaigning if it goes ahead. I think if Labour don’t win it, I think it will be quite embarrassing for them. The SNP has had a few challenges recently. You can’t go on forever being the party of government and winning every single election. When you’re older and you’ve been involved in this longer, you’re maybe a little bit more relaxed about it. But every party is going to have ups and down along the way. Labour used to control everything in Glasgow and Scotland and that eventually came to an end. So the SNP’s not going to ride high forever and ever. I certainly hope that we’ll hold this by-election and I’ll certainly be out there campaigning and I’m sure a lot of other people will as well, but ultimately it’s in the hands of the voters.”
Hardly upbeat is he?
Finally,
the last time the SNP fought a by-election it spent £98,958 out of the £100,000
legal limit, yet it failed to gain Shetland from the Liberal Democrats,
who spent £64,534. The SNP is committed to spending big, not for Katy Loudon,
but to shore up its vote. If there is a spectacular implosion, this will damage
Humza Yousaf severely as leader. The makeover by the SNP to make him ‘likeable’ has
bombed something which the KateForbes camp can't have failed to notice. He is as I have mentioned, fake, false and insincere, his man of the
people act is rather unimpressive; he literally has nothing to offer the people
or Scotland. Rutherglen and Hamilton West could prove to be his Waterloo. Humza
Yousaf’s activists don’t want to sell the party, they don’t want to be there,
and really can you blame them? This election for the SNP might be dubbed the ‘payroll
campaign’ because why would anyone not being paid want to turn up.
